The top 13 seeds received byes, leaving the rest of the field to battle it out. In this simulation, the "Seed" (Quality) is put to the test against the "Rank" (Targetability). The more realistic candidate always advances.
The Matchups:
#14 Russ Turner vs. #51 Jeremy Shulman: Turner is a former Virginia guy who has the wins, but Shulman is a far more realistic "lure" for ODU. Winner: Jeremy Shulman
#15 Joel Justus vs. #50 Kevin Nickelberry: Justus defends his seed comfortably; as a VA native, he is both higher quality and more targetable. Winner: Joel Justus
#16 Kenya Hunter vs. #49 Easton Bazzoli: A massive upset. Hunter is a powerhouse assistant, but Bazzoli’s targetability as a rising star makes him the "closer" fit. Winner: Easton Bazzoli
#17 Brian Earl vs. #48 Steve Curran: Curran pulls the upset; his targetability for a local Sun Belt opening outpaces the newly-hired Earl. Winner: Steve Curran
#18 Donnie Jones vs. #47 Peter Thomas: Thomas advances; the model favors the local assistant’s targetability over Jones' career .500 record. Winner: Peter Thomas
#19 Mike Jones (UNCG) vs. #46 Jason Shay: Jones holds serve; his deep Virginia ties, including to Hemphill, and high targetability make him a heavyweight in this bracket. Winner: Mike Jones
#20 Johnny Jones vs. #45 Michael Huger: Huger pulls the upset; his personal ties to ODU legends make him a much more realistic target than the veteran Jones. Winner: Michael Huger
#21 John Krikorian vs. #44 Kareem Richardson: Krikorian is a data juggernaut; his targetability rank is top-tier, leading to an easy win. Winner: John Krikorian
#22 Speedy Claxton vs. #43 Brad Frederick: Claxton moves on; his NBA background and HC experience make him more targetable than the UNC staffer. Winner: Speedy Claxton
#23 Bobby Hurley vs. #42 Jamal Brunt: A bracket-buster. Hurley is a legend, but Brunt’s targetability rank makes him the survivor in this realistic simulation. Winner: Jamal Brunt
#24 Griff Aldrich vs. #41 Nevada Smith: Aldrich advances easily; his readiness to lead a program in Virginia makes him a lock. Winner: Griff Aldrich
#25 Corey Gipson vs. #40 Neill Berry: Gipson holds his seed; his immediate success as a head coach makes him more targetable than the Marquette assistant. Winner: Corey Gipson
#26 Wes Miller vs. #39 Ulric Maligi: Miller moves forward; despite his Cincinnati status, he remains a more realistic "target" for a program reset. Winner: Wes Miller
#27 Dave Smart vs. #38 Adam Cohen: Cohen pulls the upset; the data suggests a high-major assistant is a more realistic lure than a Canadian legend. Winner: Adam Cohen
#28 Robert Jones vs. #37 Drew Williamson: Jones wins the battle of the 757; his targetability rank is among the best in the entire tournament. Winner: Robert Jones
#29 Jim Crutchfield vs. #36 Bino Ranson: Crutchfield’s winning pedigree and targetability send him to the next round with ease. Winner: Jim Crutchfield
#30 Terry Johnson vs. #35 Bill Coen: Johnson pulls the narrow win; his upside as a first-time HC makes him a more targetable option than the veteran Coen. Winner: Terry Johnson
#31 Dr. Brett Reed vs. #34 Tim Koenig: Koenig pulls the upset; his status as a high-potential hire makes him more targetable than the long-tenured Reed. Winner: Tim Koenig
#32 Joe Jones vs. #33 Gerry McNamara: Jones advances in a nail-biter; his experience gives him a slight targetability edge over the Syracuse legend. Winner: Joe Jones
The Round of 32 Bracket
The "Long Shots" are gone. We are left with 32 coaches who represent the best balance of resume and reality. Here are the matchups for the next round:
- #1 Bob Richey vs. #51 Jeremy Shulman
- #2 Kevin Keatts vs. #49 Easton Bazzoli
- #3 Luke Murray vs. #48 Steve Curran
- #4 Matt Langel vs. #47 Peter Thomas
- #5 John Becker vs. #45 Michael Huger
- #6 Takayo Siddle vs. #42 Jamal Brunt
- #7 James Jones vs. #38 Adam Cohen
- #8 Steve Forbes vs. #34 Tim Koenig
- #9 Travis DeCuire vs. #32 Joe Jones
- #10 Dustin Kerns vs. #30 Terry Johnson
- #11 Pat Skerry vs. #29 Jim Crutchfield
- #12 Justin Gainey vs. #28 Robert Jones
- #13 Darrin Horn vs. #26 Wes Miller
- #15 Joel Justus vs. #25 Corey Gipson
- #19 Mike Jones vs. #24 Griff Aldrich
- #21 John Krikorian vs. #22 Speedy Claxton